that's safe to say LeBron James holds better odds of being in the next NBA Finals than the Miami Heat. That's a layup of a prediction, because LeBron and the Cleveland Cavaliers sit atop the East while there's a very good chance Chris Bosh may sit out the rest of Miami's season.
Bosh is dealing with a medical condition that may be related to the blood clot that caused a scare in the organization and cut short his 2014-15 season. Last night, for the fourth straight game, the 11-time All-Star didn't show up for work, and he's said to be seeking advice from doctors, which is never a good sign.
In situations like this, the Heat sure miss having LeBron around, although the opposite might also be true. Come summer, you wonder if Heat team president Pat Riley was right in 2014, when he said a possible breakup of a unique team that went to the NBA Finals four times in four chances and won twice wouldn't be in anyone's best interest.
Twenty months after he changed the balance of power in the East by moving from Miami to Cleveland, we have this:
The Cavs are on their second coach, are still figuring a way to get consistent All-Star level production from Kevin Love, and have relinquished their unofficial rights as the NBA's Most Watchable Team to the Golden State Warriors.
The Heat missed the playoffs last season, are dealing with Bosh's health issues and are bunched in a pack with six other undistinguished East teams separated by two games in the standings.
The pull of playing close to home was too strong for LeBron to resist, and so understandably he bolted from a modern-day dynasty in 2014. Being back in Ohio has certainly fulfilled all of his personal wishes. But purely from a professional standpoint, if LeBron never wins another title, might he feel at least a tiny bit of regret?
Riley issued a warning that this could happen two summers ago while LeBron went mum about his future plans. Here's what Riley said when he challenged the Big Three — but primarily LeBron — to stay in Miami and understand what was at stake:
"This stuff is hard. And you've got to stay together, if you've got the guts. And you don't find the first door and run out of it."
As much as championships meant to him — he would vomit before every game in The Finals — Bill Russell would never leave rings on the table. Same for Magic Johnson and Michael Jordan and all the greats who put winning above everything else. Riley is old school in that regard. He felt LeBron, Bosh and Dwyane Wade had plenty of fuel left and deserved to give each other a chance to win titles. That's why they became teammates, right?
Obviously, there are no guarantees, and that's why it's too early to know if LeBron did the right or wrong thing. In LeBron's last hurrah, the Heat lost to the San Antonio Spurs in The 2014 Finals, and you could argue that if not for Ray Allen's miracle three-pointer the year before, LeBron would only have one championship.
There's another argument: Didn't LeBron reach The Finals last season without Wade and Bosh? And didn't he do it without Love and (mostly without) Kyrie Irving? And didn't he and the Cavs, in spite of that, take a pair of games against the Warriors? All true. But the Cavs, even when healthy, hardly inspire the sense of awe that Miami did, and probably would still do had LeBron stayed.
The debate will last until LeBron either wins a title in Cleveland or retires, whichever comes first. Until then, here's a look at the Cavs and Heat with and without LeBron:
The Cavaliers: They've had two tough stretches, and both happened last season when they started 5-7, and then again when LeBron missed two weeks with injuries and they lost nine of 10. Otherwise, the Cavs have distanced themselves from the East, both on won-loss record and on perception, and barring a major injury, it would be a huge upset if someone other than Cleveland reaches The Finals.
Underneath the shiny exterior, however, are well-documented worries. Love still hasn't looked cozy in a Cavs' uniform except for stretches. He'll never be the Kevin Love of Minnesota for good reasons — he gets fewer touches and isn't around the rim enough to rebound at the pace he had with the Wolves. That said, if Love's primary role is a 3-point shooter, couldn't Cleveland have found someone else to do just as good a job, or maybe even better (and definitely cheaper)? Love's defense remains poor, so he must produce offensively, or else he's not helping.
Also, LeBron pushed the Cavs to trade Andrew Wiggins for Love, meaning the Cavs surrendered a younger player who's a better defender and athlete. And because he's on a rookie contract, he'd be cheaper; too, allowing the Cavs to add more talent on the cap before Wiggins was due an extension.
Cleveland's supporting cast beyond Love, LeBron and Irving might be a step above what LeBron had in Miami, but not by much. Tristan Thompson, J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert, Timofey Mozgov and Matthew Dellavedova all have their pluses and minuses, so the real issue lies with LeBron's A-list crew: Is Love and Irving better than Bosh and Wade?
The immediate goal is for the Cavs to keep LeBron fresh for the playoffs and hope Love and Irving stay healthy. That should be more than enough to win the East. But a championship? Again, at this point in his career, that's all that commands LeBron's focus.
His window in Cleveland isn't necessarily closing, and the Cavs can keep refreshing the help that surrounds him, especially with the salary cap rise. But his body must hold up after years of a heavy grind. He also knows that Cleveland would rejoice with just one championship, which would be worth six in Miami.
The Heat: After Wednesday's game home loss to the Warriors, the Heat's record post-LeBron is 69-70 with no playoff wins. And that may not change much if Bosh is done for the season.
Understand that had LeBron stayed, Miami would not have Luol Deng or rookie Justise Winslow, a lottery pick last summer. They probably wouldn't have traded for Goran Dragic; they couldn't extend him last summer and cope with an enormous tax bill with the Big Three on payroll. But the Heat would have Hassan Whiteside, and Riley, based on his history, would've found a ring-chasing veteran on the cheap to get a decent 20-25 minutes a night. From a defensive standpoint, Whiteside, the NBA shot-blocking leader and top-five rebounder, would've been the best big man LeBron ever had.
There's also the worst-case scenario: LeBron would be without Dragic, Winslow, Deng and then Bosh, and left with an old Wade. But who could've seen Bosh's injury problems? Besides, LeBron would've had an escape clause for 2016 and given the grim picture painted above, nobody would blame him if he exercised it.
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