Can you feel it? Training camp starts next week! No more news about a a guy losing 15 pounds, a guy gaining 10 pounds of muscle, a power forward working on his dribbling, or even a guy dropping fried chicken from his diet.
If you followed our columns from the offseason last year, you might have noticed we had a tad more info on the free side in 2014. However, in 2015 we really put in an extra effort on the Rotoworld NBA Draft Guide. On top of projections, rankings, customizable options, 350 player profiles, team summaries and even more, we have already added 28 columns on the guide. Here’s what it looks like in the guide.
That’ll keep you busy for a while and we’ll add probably 5-10 more, too. You can download the Draft Guide right here!
Anyway, with the Draft Guide ready to roll, we’re going to be doing more stuff on the free side of things. I’ll be doing a mailbag every week.
Before we get started for the season run here, I have to give a shoutout to my favorite sites for stats: NBA.com, NBAWowy, Basketball Reference. Basically every stat in my columns all year will come from those three places.
You can also hit me up on Twitter @MikeSGallagher for questions throughout the season.
Also, Steve Alexander (@docktora), Aaron Bruski (@aaronbruski) and I had a mailbag podcast with more info than you'll know what to do with. We answered most of the questions outside of some the user-specific ones, so check that out! There were a lot of questions about the Pacers, so this mailbag is just about them.
@NBAnapele @MikeSGallagher George Hill's value? Myles Turner can be a beast in his 1st year?
Before we get to this question, we actually have some big news on the Pacers. Coach Frank Vogel said on Thursday Paul George is projected to start at power forward. The 6'9 forward certainly has the size, but there's still a good chance he plays more minutes at the three than at the four. “An idea on paper is to have a starting lineup of George Hill, Monta Ellis, C.J. Miles, Paul George and Ian Mahinmi,” said Vogel. This is from Candace Buckner of the Indy Star, so definitely check out the whole column right here.
Here is a terrific quote from George Hill about the lineup from that column:
“We hope so,” Hill said when asked about Mahinmi’s status as the starting center. “I think he deserves it right now, he’s our lone big that’s been here the longest. He’s done a great job when he’s been in the game so far for us with changing the style of play and the speed of the game and doing a great job defensively. I know he’s been working hard this summer to try to step up in that role we’re missing right now from Roy [Hibbert] being gone. Knowing that we’re going to miss Roy a lot but I think Ian will do a great job in trying to fill that void.”
In case you were watching baseball or football this offseason, the move of PG-13 to the four isn't that surprising. Larry Bird said he'd rather have the boost on the offensive side and possibly take a smaller hit on defense, which does make sense considering how thin they are up front. Vogel did say he could change the lineup throughout the preseason, so definitely keep an eye on it.
People always freak out about a starting lineup and this will probably be overblown. While George is likely to start at the four, I would be surprised to see him play more minutes at the four than the three. That's a lot of pressure on a guy who broke his leg, and George wasn't thrilled with this idea earlier this summer. "If I've got to play a couple minutes at power forward, I'm fine with it," George said. He also added he wasn't expecting to play 30 minutes at that spot, which again would be crazy talk.
For fantasy, I'm not touching George in drafts. Obviously there's some concern about his leg, but don't forget he really ran out of gas in his breakout 2013-14 season. In fact, George was just 27th in nine-cat leagues in the second half of his season (that's 40 of his 80 games, not the All-Star break). Here's what his shot chart looked like post-break:
Yikes. Those paint numbers are awful, and do you think he is going to see a big improvement around the basket after a dangerous leg injury? Well, he made just 29 percent in the paint last season (14 attempts). This obviously isn't a big sample, but he'll likely be off around the basket again. There are just too many other guys I like in the second round to take PG-13. Let someone else draft him.
Let's say George gets his minutes split right down the middle at the four and three, so that's 17-18 minutes at the four. That basically means we'll be looking at a four-man rotation for the rest of the big's 78-79 minutes: Mahinmi, Jordan Hill, Myles Turner and Lavoy Allen. Mahinmi made six starts last season, averaging 7.5 points, 7.5 boards and 1.0 blocks while somehow making just 1-of-12 from the line in his 24.8 minutes per game. Plus, keep in mind the Pacers were razor thin with only Luis Scola and Lavoy Allen available for all six of those starts. David West, Chris Copeland and Shayne Whittington were there for some of those games, too. The point is that I don't see Mahinmi playing 25 minutes while the team is healthy and it'll probably be around 20. He's also a little injury prone.
That leaves about 58 minutes for Turner, Hill and Allen. I really don't see Allen getting more than 17 even though his numbers are solid when he logs over 20. He would have to get more minutes at center, but he can't really protect the rim like Turner or Mahinmi. That would likely put Hill and Turner splitting 40-plus minutes down the middle to start the season. If Turner gets hot, he'll be taking minutes away from all the other guys, so don't downgrade him too much. More on him later.
OK, let's get to the question about Hill and Turner:
George Hill is an interesting case this season. Once he got over what was believed to be a very ominous groin injury, he really got it going last season. In his 43 games, Hill averaged 16.1 points, 4.2 boards, 5.1 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.6 treys. More impressively, he made 47.7 percent from the field on his 12.4 shots per game. That was good for third-round value on the season per game and he was a second-round guy after the break.
Obviously, he was much more involved in the offense thanks to the Pacers being shorthanded. In 2013-14, he averaged 10.3 points, 3.7 boards, 3.5 assists, 0.3 blocks and 1.3 treys on 44.2 percent from the field. Plus, he actually played 2.5 more minutes per game two seasons ago. Perhaps the biggest difference was usage rate: Hill had just a 14.8 usage rate in 2013-14 and it increased all the way to 24.3 last year Wowie. Here’s a comparison of his shot chart in those two seasons starting with 2014-15 at the top:
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